Republicans Are Still Looking For A Real Front Runner

The latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll, taken between July 9-11 with 1,004 adults, shows that many Republicans are still undecided. This is in sharp contrast with the Democrats that have held fairly consistent poll numbers. It is still six months before the first real voting, but the Republicans have no clear front runner. Rudy Giuliani’s numbers fall each poll. He was around 35% in March, but now he is at 21%. Right behind him in the polls with 19% is undeclared candidate Fred Thompson. Thompson wasn’t even in the polls in March. John McCain is tumbling down in the polls with 15%, but he is still ahead of big money winner Mitt Romney who only gets 11%. Romney has been going up in the polls, probably at McCain’s expense. Mike Huckabee has remained at a constant 3%. The other undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich only gets 5%, which is down from 11% in March. The most telling part of the poll is the “none of the above” and “don’t know” categories for the Republicans. A month ago they were around 14%, but now these two categories are at 23% which is more than front runner Giuliani’s 21%. On the other side of the aisle Hillary Clinton is still the front runner with around 36%. Barack Obama is second with 20%, and the Democratic surprise is Al Gore is third with 15%. John Edwards is the only other one in double digits with 11%. The Democratic numbers have remained pretty consistent during the last three polls, especially when compared to the Republican numbers. This discontent among Republican voters might give some hope to the lesser known candidates like Huckabee or undeclared candidates like Gingrich. If you put these poll numbers together with the recent fundraising reports it doesn’t look very good for Republicans in 2008. If Fred Thompson isn’t Ronald Reagen resurrected the Republicans are going down in flames.
Alan Cosgrove